Introduction
As of May 31st, the factory inventory of paste polyvinyl chloride resin sample enterprises was 26400 tons, which was basically the same as mid May, and the inventory pressure was controllable; The negative value of available inventory and the widening gap compared to mid May indicate that the company's orders improved in late May. At the beginning of June, there were indeed signs of stabilization in market prices, but the support for price stabilization was not solid against the backdrop of weak demand and even expectations of further weakening. We need to be vigilant about the impact of restarting some devices on the supply-demand balance in the future.
Inventory data interpretation: Factory inventory remains stable, but sales negative value expands
As of May 31st, the inventory of paste PVC resin sample enterprises in the factory area was 26400 tons, which was basically the same as mid May, and the overall inventory pressure of the enterprise was controllable. The available inventory is -12000, and the negative gap has widened compared to mid May, indicating an increase in new orders received by the company in late May and further accumulation of pre-sales. This is consistent with the observation that market prices showed signs of stabilization in early June.
A negative sellable inventory indicates that the company's pre-sale orders exceed the available supply. The widening negative gap indicates an improvement in the order situation of enterprises and a reduction in short-term shipping pressure.
Behind the stabilization of prices: supporting factors and vulnerabilities coexist
The current price stabilization mainly relies on three aspects of support. One is that the available inventory is negative, and the enterprise still has some pre-sale orders to be delivered; Secondly, the inventory in the factory area is controllable, and there is not much pressure on the enterprise to ship; Thirdly, the price has fallen to a relatively low level, and inquiries from some downstream and traders have increased.
However, the fragility of the market is equally evident. Although the negative gap in available inventory has widened, the absolute value is only about -12000 tons, and the support is relatively limited.
Market outlook: Against the backdrop of low demand season, market support is not solid
In the short term, the PVC paste resin market is in a stable stage of "controllable inventory and improved order acceptance". The expansion of negative value of sellable inventory is a positive signal for enterprises to improve order acceptance and a key support for price stabilization.
But in the context of low demand season, market support is not solid. June to August is the traditional off-season for demand, and the demand for bulk materials is expected to further weaken. The demand for glove materials is also in a weak state for the year. In addition, some new facilities are planned to restart, and if production resumes, the pressure on the supply side will increase, which may break the current fragile weak balance pattern.
It is recommended to focus on changes in available inventory and the progress of new device restarts as core indicators for judging short-term trends. If the negative value of available inventory continues to expand, prices are expected to remain stable; If the available inventory returns to normal or new equipment is concentrated in large quantities, prices may come under pressure again.